COVID-19 Pandemic: Do not panic, but use extreme caution

SARS-CoV2 is a novel coronavirus identified as the cause of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) that began in Wuhan, China in late 2019 and spread worldwide.

There are several known coronaviruses that infect only animals. Seven coronaviruses cause disease in humans also. Four of them cause symptoms of the common cold most frequently. Three of them cause much more severe, and sometimes fatal, respiratory infections in humans, and have caused major outbreaks of deadly pneumonia in the 21st century: MERS-CoV (2012), SARS-CoV (2002) and SARS-CoV2 (2019).

We are learning more about SARS-CoV2 everyday as Scientists all over the world are collaboratively studying this virus at rapid speed. In the past few months, we have learned what it is and how to detect it. The research is speeding up to find cures and vaccines. None of them will be available for at least a year or so.

There is absolutely no reason to panic. 80% cases are mild. The main symptoms are fever and dry cough. Most of the infected individuals will be cured on their own. Less than 20% people may develop shortness of breath needing medical attention. In less than 5% cases, intensive care may be needed. The initial estimates of fatality based on the data from China is 2.3%, but less than SARS (10%) or MERS (35%). However, COVID-19 virus appears to be more infectious and is easily spreading worldwide. That is the reason why we need to be extremely cautious.

The risk of someone getting seriously ill is about 5-10% if infected by COVID-19 virus. The risk of death is around 1-5% with a higher rate in elderly and immunocompromised individuals. It should also be noted that everyone in Wuhan province (the epicenter) did not get infected. Only about 17% (619 of the 3,700) of the passengers and crew members on the Diamond Princess cruise ship were infected during the COVID-19 outbreak in February. It is highly likely that some of the younger folks and individuals with strong immunity will not get the infection. Therefore, an individual’s real risk of getting serious illness is much lower than 5-10%. There is no reason to panic.

Why extreme caution, then? 

If we do not follow the state Department of Health guidelines and go about our day to day life as before, infections will multiply exponentially causing serious illness to 0.1% of the population. That is 70,000 people in the state of Massachusetts, needing emergency and intensive care in addition to regular emergency room traffic. You know how long people normally wait in an emergency room. If you suddenly add 70,000 people in the line, imagine how much longer it will take to get any medical help. Further, acutely serious COVID-19 patients will need ICU care with special equipment (like ventilators) which are in short supply. Our health care system is totally under-prepared for dealing with such a high number of seriously ill patients. Therefore, we have to do everything possible to slow down the rate of infection. 

The most effective means of slowing down the infection is “social distancing” because infection is spreading by person-to-person (and person-surface) contact via large respiratory droplets.

If you think you have been exposed to COVID‑19 and develop a fever and symptoms, such as cough or difficulty breathing, call your healthcare provider for medical advice. Do not rush to your doctor’s office or emergency room if you have mild symptoms only. It is absolutely necessary that you stay away from others.

Even if you do not have the symptoms, you must practice social distancing to keep yourself and others safe from infection. Do not go to hospital to get yourself tested. You would be putting yourself at greater risk of getting sick by going to a healthcare facility with other COVID-19 positive patients.

“Social distancing” and “washing hands frequently” are the two powerful tools we have to slow down infection to make ourselves safe. Also, avoid touching your face with your hands. Do not use up face masks and other personal protective equipment unnecessarily. Leave them for healthcare professionals who need them to protect themselves while treating the patients.

Stay home. Stay safe.